Putin is well into the shaping operations needed to execute the plans you outline. As stated he will seek to sow discord and disarray with a comprehensive disinformation plan.

His initial objective is to continue to stymie support for Ukraine by US. His hope would be the engagement by NATo forces to shore up Ukraine. This should reduce capacity to respond to attack in Baltics by key NATO members. Concurrently he will seek to enlarge right wing support throughout western democracies for non-action to his moves.

Yes Russia is not very sophisticated as a military force, but they are now on a wartime footing and getting smarter everyday. His asymmetrical approach of claiming the Baltic’s has merit and with stumbles by NATO leaders, who other than Poland, have not yet been able to grasp that we are at war now.

This is a war where kinetics are the last action. We need to wake up.