My analysis at the three week point.

https://jessebarker-19295.medium.com/sun-tzus-and-the-art-of-war-principals-of-war-putin-has-failed-to-consider-8a17864e8ba9

I stated that if you look at how this war was implemented by Mr. Putin and the character of the Ukrainian forces you could pretty much predict the outcome. In this case, Mr. Putin would fail. This seems to be holding true despite Mr Putins attempt to narrow the purpose of his war down to a lesser goal. He has not addressed his fundamental weaknesses.

So I’m my mind we are and have been at the inflection point. Russians have lost approximately 25% of their combat forces. They are not taking the necessary tactical pause to regenerate those loses into a cohesive tactical force. Meanwhile the Ukrainians are leveling up with even greater firepower provided by western allies.

While it is true that the Russians could eventually throw enough bodies at this to show some progress, they are still hampered with exterior lines of communication and disjointed non-supporting attacks that prevent their ability to exploit a localized success on the battlefield or discovered weakness of the Ukrainians lines. Add to that low morale, incompetent battlefield leadership and lack of moral imperative points to only Russian failure in this war. This is their Gettysburg.

It is unfortunate that so many will die in what is a lost cause. At least Picket made it to the fence line.